While the Ukrainian war seems to be slowly moving into the long wintery spell, no settlement seems to be forthcoming soon.
The way it has played out was not envisaged by any of the parties involved like Russia, the US, and Ukraine.
Russia wanted the Special Operations to be a “get in and get out” kind of a deal but it seems to have got completely bogged down with the unforeseen resilience of the Ukrainian army and people with tacit European and US support.
The US on the other hand has not been able to achieve much in pressurizing recalcitrant Russia despite the severest economic sanctions being placed on it.
Ukrainians with their back to the wall and with nothing more to lose are continuing to fight with whatever they have and the support they are getting from outside knowing fully well that they are on moral high ground.
Even though playing behind the scenes the US is a key player in the whole game.
The recent decision by the US to approve the expansion of NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) by including Sweden and Finland as member countries is an attempt to put Russia on the back foot in Europe.
With independent and powerful developed countries like Sweden and Finland becoming members of NATO, encircling Russia on its borders, it will be a virtual military stranglehold on Russia by its ideological and political opponents.
The US senators went all out for the inclusion of Finland and Sweden into NATO with a 95-1 vote underlining the importance of NATO expansion as paramount for the entire democratic liberal free world and the national security of the US, as its flag bearer. US’s closeness to NATO could be seen by the fact the ambassadors of Finland and Sweden were both present in the gallery to witness the voting by the US Senators.
One of the ostensible reasons for the Russian attack on Ukraine which had shown keenness to join NATO was to make Ukraine serve as an example to check other countries in the area from joining NATO, which did not happen. Rather just the reverse seems to be happening with non-militarily aligned Finland and Sweden deciding to go in for NATO to avoid a situation that Ukraine faced.
Finland and Sweden will require approval from all the 30 member nations of NATO before it enters NATO though it has already got approval from more than half of them.
Minnesota Senator’s statement in the US Senate following the approval is pertinent “It sends a warning shot to tyrants around the world who believe free democracies are just up for grabs.”
Countries like Finland and Sweden – two very powerful nations – coming into the fold of NATO would make the alliance much stronger. A strategic breakthrough for the US. This western military alliance would be securing hundreds of miles of the border with Russia under the well-trained ground forces of these two. With the combined economic and military prowess of both these countries, NATO hopes it will change the defense and security scenario even in the Baltics.
A crucial point that must not be lost sight of is that both these countries who to date had taken a stance of non-alignment are being virtually pushed into a military alliance by the Ukraine war in Europe, exactly the opposite of what Putin wished for.
Biden’s support to the two countries helped in their coming to the decision. The NATO partnership has prospered following the attack on Ukraine
NATO’s growing strength can be gauged from the fact that US Senators also approved another amendment, declaring that all NATO members should spend a minimum of 2 percent of their gross domestic product on defence and 20 percent of their defence budgets on major equipment, including research and development.
Naturally, Russia is not happy. President Putin had already warned against NATO expansion dubbing it an attempt to “destabilize” the Russian Society.
He has declared that NATO’s deployment of infrastructure or troops near Russian borders will be equally matched.
What NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said today in Arbeidernes ungdoms fylking (AUF) summer camp on the island of Utøya, Norway, highlights certain important aspects of NATO in this context.
He said NATO is a community. Where the basic idea is that an attack on one country is an attack on all.
One for all, all for one.
Its purpose is not to provoke war. The purpose is to prevent war. Preserve peace. As NATO has done for over 70 years.
He said, “It is more important now than ever, in a more dangerous world. With war in Europe. Where Russia has invaded Ukraine. President Putin has attacked an entire innocent country and people, with military force, to achieve his political goals.”
He said, “What he is really doing is challenging the world order we believe in. Where all countries, large and small, can choose their own path. He does not accept the sovereignty of other countries. After, all the war was triggered by his demand for Russian control over Ukraine. And his demand that NATO should not be further enlarged.”
Stoltenberg said, Putin “does not respect Ukraine’s desire to become part of our community. Or other countries’ sovereign decisions to apply for NATO membership.”
In this conflict, he said, NATO has two tasks. Support Ukraine. And prevent the conflict from spreading into a full-scale war between NATO and Russia.
He said NATO supported Ukraine’s right to self-defence. A right enshrined in international law.
“We have a moral responsibility to support them.
They are an independent country, with over 40 million people, who are unjustifiably subject to a brutal war of aggression. We are seeing acts of war, attacks on civilians and destruction not seen since World War II.
We cannot be indifferent to this.” he added.
He said, but, it is also in our own interest that President Putin does not succeed in his ambitions in Ukraine.
A world where the lesson for Putin is that he gets what he wants by using military force is also a more dangerous world for us.
If Russia wins this war, he will have confirmation that violence works, Stoltenberg said.
Then other neighbouring countries may be next, he added.
We pay a price for our support to Ukraine. For the military, humanitarian, and financial support.
The sanctions, have resulted in increased inflation and higher prices in our countries.
But remember – the price we pay may be measured in money. The price Ukraine pays is measured in human lives. Hundreds killed or wounded every day.
“What we see now is a brutal and bloody war of attrition. The Russian advance has stalled again.
And the Ukrainians have shown the ability to strike back and take back territory, and are planning a counter-offensive in the south”, he added.
Mr Stoltenberg said, “The second task of NATO is to prevent the war from spreading. We do that both by not being a party to the war – we are not entering Ukraine with troops. We also do it by showing clearly that an attack on a NATO country will trigger a response from the whole of NATO. That is why we are increasing our military presence in the east of the alliance.”
“Since the war broke out, we have around 40,000 soldiers under NATO command, mainly in the east.
Backed by a significant number of aircraft and ships.”
Over 300,000 forces at high readiness across the Alliance, and more pre-positioned military material, primarily to defend the eastern part of the Alliance.
Or as the ancient Romans said: “If you want peace, you must plan for war.”
Deterrence prevents conflict, he said.
President Putin also believed, he said, that through the use of military force he would get less NATO near Russia’s border.
His stated goals and demands for NATO are that we should withdraw our forces, remove all military infrastructure and not admit more member states.
He has achieved the opposite.
A stronger and more unified NATO, more agile and decisive.With more forces on the border.
Stoltenberg said, “Putin calls us an aggressive and expansive NATO. This is a story we must never accept.
These are free, democratic countries that have chosen themselves. Their accession will strengthen NATO.
It will strengthen defence cooperation in the Nordic region.”
A more dangerous world means that we have to invest more in defence, he said. To keep the peace.
Strong defence is a fundamental prerequisite for a safe and stable society, he said. We ensure this best when we stand together – and are therefore infinitely safer than when we are alone, he added.
Whether the time has come for Russia to cut its losses and leave? Only future can tell. But the war in Ukraine does seems to be ending anytime soon.
| Posted by Sameer Khan | 
