The first phase of Lok Sabha elections in Karnataka concluded on Friday (April 26). The state has 28 seats in Lok Sabha. Fourteen of these seats have witnessed the polling today. The second phase of polling for another 14 seats will be held on May 7. The 14 seats where the elections are held on Friday fall under South Karnataka which is known as ‘Old Mysore State’ and was ruled by the Mysore Maharajas till 1947. It is basically a greener, more fertile and more industrialised part of Karnataka with big cities such as Bangalore, Mangalore, Mysore, and Shimoga (these names have undergone some slight changes during the last decade) falling under it.
Karnataka has been the first state in south India where a BJP government was formed in 2008. Since then it has ruled the state twice. During the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP captured 25 of the 28 seats. The remaining three were shared by the Congress, Janata Dal-Secular (JDS), and an independent candidate.
The state witnessed the elections for the Legislative Assembly in May 2023. The Congress won those elections by winning 136 of the 224 seats. Siddramaiah, a Congressman of the Lohiaite Socialist School became the chief minister. He has a strong supporter (as well as contender) in deputy CM D. K. Shivakumar. Both have lent the Congress great strength in the state. The BJP had dislodged the Congress-JDS government in 2019 by engineering defection. Between 2019 and 2023 the BJP had two chief ministers i.e., Yediyurappa and S. R. Bommai. Corruption had scaled great heights and the BJP mainly lost the last year’s elections on the plank of corruption. During the last one year, the Congress has led the state with great aplomb. It had given five guarantees to the electorate.
One: 200 units of free power to the household (under the GruhavJyothi scheme) that consumes less than 200 units. Nearly one crore households have benefitted from this scheme.
Two: Free bus travel for women which has made it possible for thousands of women who work in garment factories, mandis, farms or as housemaids to travel free.
Three: Unemployment doles for unemployed graduates (Rs. 3,000) and diploma holders (Rs 2,000) a month.
Four: Rs 2,000 to every housewife (even widows) every month under Gruha Lakshmi scheme.
Five: 10 kg free rice for all BPL cardholders. (of these 5kg come from central quota).
These schemes were honestly implemented in the state during the last one year. (However, one may not agree about the wisdom of a free supply of power and free travel facilities which will only render important public amenities financially unviable in the long term.)
But it could be said that these guarantees have benefitted a great mass of people and created a favourable atmosphere for the Indian National Congress. The Congress had received 43% of total votes in Assembly elections while the BJP had received 36%. The JDS which had not allied with any of the two big parties polled 18% votes and only 18 seats in the legislature.
The political equations have changed since then. The JDS headed by former Prime Minister Deve Gowda and his progeny has been in an existential crisis since then. It has now entered an alliance with the BJP although word ‘secular’ is part of its nomenclature. However, for the record, the party has never stood by its nomenclature.
In the current LS elections, the JDS has been given 3 of the 14 seats in South Karnataka, namely Hassan, Tumkur, and Bangalore Rural. JDS has a strong following of the Vokkaliga community (mainly farmers of the Cauvery basin districts). This certainly lends an advantage to the BJP-JDS combine. But that depends on a neat vote transfer. Alliance politics does not carry an insurance policy. There are important Vokkaliga leaders in the Congress too. Deputy CM D. K. Shivakumar himself is a very tall leader of the Indian National Congress, but certainly less revered/respected than Deve Gowda. Secondly, the fulfillment of five guarantees is having an impact on the youth. Even otherwise Karnataka does not have a major unemployment problem as Bangalore is a vast IT Hub and attracts engineers and diploma holders from all over the country.
Of the 14 seats that went to elections on Friday, four fall under Bangalore i.e., B.lore North; B.lore South; B.lore Central, and B.lore Rural. Each of them has around 22 lakh voters. Of these, only B.lore Rural had elected a Congress MP in 2019. Mandya had gone to an independent candidate, film actor SumalathaAmbareesh, who is the widow of late Kannada film actor Ambareesh. She has since tilted towards the BJP and has recently joined the BJP. This time Deve Gowda’s son and twice CM (although for short terms) H. D. Kumaraswami has been fielded from there under the BJP-JDS alliance. He is most likely to win.
B.lore rural is being contested by sitting Congress MP D. K. Suresh, brother of deputy CM D. K. Shivakumar. He is also likely to retain it. He is being opposed by cardiologist Dr. C. N. Manjunath, son-in-law of Deve Gowda. Manjunath is a greenhorn in politics.
B.lore North is seeing a contest between Shobha Karandalaje, a close confidante of Yediyurappa, and Prof. Rajeev Gowda, a retired professor from IIM-Bangalore. B.lore Central is seeing a fight between sitting BJP MP, P. C. Mohan and Mansoor Ali Khan, son of former central minister and long-time Rajya Sabha MP, Rahman Khan. Mansoor is the only Muslim nominee from the Congress, there being no Muslim in the fray from the BJP.
In Mysore, the scion of the former princely family Yaduveer has been fielded by the BJP and is being opposed by Congress’ Lakshmana Gowda. The family of the former Maharaja is highly respected in the Mysore region. He will carry legacy votes. It is a prestigious seat as CM Siddramaiah also hails from the same region and is an MLA from Varuna, a constituency in the outskirts of Mysore.
While the Congress has consolidated its position in Karnataka, the BJP has seen tussles and conflict within after its fall from power during the last one year. Yediyurappa’s son B. Y. Vijayendra was appointed the state president of the party last year. This has become a bone of contention within the party. The party cadres and leaders have questioned the import of parivarvaad into the party. Secondly, many party leaders are incensed over another son of Yeddyurappa, B.Y.Raghavendra being fielded from Shimoga. A former minister and a leading light of the state BJP, Eshwarappa has revolted against the party and filed his nomination against the official candidate. He was expelled from the party three days ago following his refusal to withdraw from the contest. Raghavendra is being opposed by Geetha Shivarajkumar, daughter of former CM Bangarappa and wife of film actor Shivarajkumar, who is the son of Kannada Matinee Idol Rajkumar. Eashwarappa had requested the ticket from Shimoga to be given to his son Kantesh. This open revolt, very unusual in BJP, has sent out signals of differences and fissures within the BJP ranks in the state.
BJP is facing a revolt from a section of Lingayaths, who formed a solid vote bank of the party. Nomination of central minister Pralhad Joshi from South Dharwar is another sore point for the BJP as Joshi is a BJP candidate from predominantly Lingayath constituency. Pralhad Joshi is a Brahmin and Lingayath Mutt seers are sore over Joshi being fielded time and again from this constituency. A mutt seer Dhingaleshwar had demanded the ticket from South Dharwar for a Lingayath. Refusal has led him to raise a banner of revolt. Of late, he has announced the community’s support for the Congress candidate.
The BJP is facing revolts, opposition and heartburn in Bidar, Chikkaballapur and Chitradurga too. MLAs in Bidar are not campaigning for Bhagwanth Khuba, BJP nominee for Bidar. Similarly, former BJP CM Jagdeesh Shettar has been fielded from Belgaum where he has faced placards ‘Shettar Wapas Jao’ by BJP cadres. Shettar had quit BJP during last year’s Assembly elections, was nominated MLC by the Congress which he quit prior to LS election only to go back to the BJP. However, the BJP hopes to cash in on PM Narendra Modi’s image and appeal. This works with a vast section of the electorate when it comes to Lok Sabha elections.
JDS is fighting against Congress on three seats i.e., Mandya, Hassan, and Tumkur. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi had alleged JDS to be the ‘B’ team of BJP during the last year’s Assembly election. He now has a point to target the JDS with more such diatribes. Essentially revolving around Deve Gowda’s family, the JDS is mainly concerned about protecting the family assets against ED and IT raids, the principal reason why H D Kumaraswamy decided to side with the BJP this time.
With the second phase slated on May 7, it is to be seen if Karnataka remains hospitable to the BJP in the same measure as in the past.
M.A Siraj is a senior journalist based in Bengaluru
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