Will the Bharat Rastra Samithi (BRS) win any Lok Sabha seats on its own? Will it play any role in determining the fortunes of the Cong (I) and the BJP? Will the regional party face an existential threat post the results on June 4?
These are serious issues that have become hot topics of discussion in the political corridors of the Telangana State as well as in national politics.
This situation has arisen basically due to the severe drubbing the regional party suffered in the November 2023 State Legislative Assembly. It set off some dramatic events that marked an injury to the BRS Chief, K Chandrasekhar Rao; desertions by sitting MPs; MLAs, and some leaders on the eve of the Lok Sabha elections and the overall ‘lacklustre’ attitude of KCR in fighting the battle for the Parliament.
All these developments led to a situation wherein political analysts started portraying the Lok Sabha elections 2024 in Telangana State as a clash between the two national parties—Cong(I) and the BJP. If the Cong (I) claimed it could win 12-14 seats, the BJP’s strongman, Amit Shah had set a target of 14 for the party.
This ambitious target led to aggressive politicking with a ‘dispirited and vulnerable’ BRS as the target for both to gain ground. The result was poaching and lure by the Cong (I) which is in power in the State and a ‘Carrot and stick’ approach by the NDA led by Prime Minister Modi at the Centre. Consequently, the BRS appeared to have slipped to a distant third in the race by the time the election schedule was completed on April 29.
But, when the polling was completed on May 13 with a percentage of about 66%, a slight increase from 2019, the supremely confident talking Cong (I) and the BJP were left with lingering doubts about achieving their targets. The prominent factor that emerged in the 3-4 weeks was not how many seats the BRS would win but in how many constituencies it would impact the fortunes of the two national parties. This factor infused tremendous excitement into the electioneering and saw the unusual feature of the PM and the Home Minister, Modi-Shah combine to participate in a record number of political meetings.
Unusual factor
The unusual focus is being interpreted as looking beyond the BJP increasing its numbers in the South with Telangana as the biggest gainer in 2024 to its attempts at trying to take the place of the BRS as the opposition to the Cong (I) in the State through political manoeuvring a la Maharashtra style or through large scale defections.
Therefore, the BRS (earlier TRS), which had a good run in power for a decade since the formation of the Telangana State suddenly appeared ‘Down and Out’ just around the time of the announcement of the Lok Sabha elections for 2024 in mid-March had managed to emerge as a key player in determining the results of elections held on May 13 to the 17 Lok Sabha seats in Telangana.
Excitement over Telangana elections
Though with a total number of 17 seats out of the 545 in the Lok Sabha, Telangana perhaps does not present itself as a strong State in the national level government formation, the desperation of the BJP to expand into the South and the Cong(I) to rise from its pathetic tally of just over 50 after the 2019 elections has shored up its importance. The possibility of a strong regional party like BRS getting marginalised has upped the ante across the country.
The opportunities for the national parties looked bright when KCR and BRS did not show strong signs of recovery needed for facing another election battle within months of its reverses in the Assembly. The Party, which held 9 seats, could muster just about 6-8 candidates confidently in select constituencies. In many others, it was forced to search for disheartened party leaders. To make matters worse, the party lost leaders to both the Cong (I) and the BJP. Examples being sitting MPs– Ranjit Reddy in Chevella to the Cong (I), B B Patil in Zahirabad to the BJP; Danam Nagender, the Party MLA from Khairatabad jumped to get Cong (I) ticket in Secunderabad, and Kadiyam Sravya (daughter of Kadiyam Srihari, an ex-Minister) in Warangal to the Cong(I).
KCR bounces back
Faced with a serious threat, KCR took to the streets with some serious campaigning. His nephew and grassroots leader, T Harish Rao supported well while K T Rama Rao took to the media and social media to attack the Cong (I) and BJP. The entire effort was to bolster the party cadres. KCR being the crowd-puller and popular mass leader did get a good response in the rural areas. Ironically, the BRS lost badly in rural Telangana in the Assembly.
The party is facing hostility from both Cong (I), which is poaching its cadres in addition to its leaders voluntarily defecting. The BJP on the other hand has put pressure using the arrest of Kalvakuntla Kavitha (daughter of KCR), MLC in the Delhi liquor policy scam by the national investigation agencies and dangling a carrot to those who defect by offering tickets etc.
KCR and his BRS emerged stronger during the past decade by engineering defections first in the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), which is now virtually a shut case, and then from the Cong (I) too through an operation called ‘ Akarshan’ (attraction), weakening it considerably in Telangana. At the national level, he maintained a tacit understanding with the BJP’s top leadership, especially the PM. By extending issue-based support, he kept the State BJP at a distance and halted its growth till 2022 end.
BRS, BJP rift
However, the rebranding of the TRS into BRS and the open, national ambitions attempted by KCR during 2022-23 created the rift with the BJP. Also, it became imperative for the Saffron Party to rapidly grow in strength in Telangana to make a bid for a third term in 2024. In the fast developments that took place, the BJP gained in increasing its vote share from around 7% in 2018 to doubling to 14% in 2023. Its seat strength grew from 1 to 9 in the Assembly. In 2019 it won a record 4 seats in the Lok Sabha.
The rift began to widen after the Assembly elections and the BJP began to exert maximum pressure on the BRS. Will the BRS move from a tacit understanding to a strategic shift in its voting to help the national party with an eye on its future?
The second factor in favour of KCR is the simmering discontent brewing among the rural voters towards the Cong (I) government led by Chief Minister, A Revanth Reddy on implementation of the promises made by his Party or the ones by KCR; the power cuts, drinking water issues, etc. Will these voters, who become vital, spoil the chances of the national parties in select constituencies? The shift of the AIMIM away from the BRS to Cong (I) through a tacit understanding is another interesting development in these elections.
Overall, the decline of the regional power—BRS from a strong force to an also-ran but what little but critical impact it can make in nearly a dozen Lok Sabha constituencies has pushed up the excitement in the 2024 elections as people and parties wait with bated breath till June 4 for the results.
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